The Showdown at the “Ka mau ke te wehi” Corral

Last Saturday night the Ikaroa Rawhiti By Election was won by Meka Whaitiri (Labour Party).

Ikaroa Rawhiti is a big rohe.  It starts at at Hicks Bay and goes all the way down the East Coast to Wainuiomata in Wellington. It contains a number of different iwi.

This infographic focuses on the battle for Te Tai Rawhiti – or as the Cowboys might say…..the Showdown at the ‘Ka mau te wehi’ Corral! (Not the OK Corral! But the Ka mau ke te wehi Corral! Ye hah!)

So the region that Apirana (his birthday is today) and now Te Runanga o Ngati Porou calls te hau kaenga o Ngati Porou is from Potaka or Potikirua in the North, to Te Toka a Taiau or the Gisborne River Bridge.

There are 11 booths in this rohe. These are: Hicks Bay, Te Araroa,  Tikitiki, Ruatoria, Te Puia, Tokomaru Bay, Tolaga Bay, Whangara, Kaiti, Ilminster, Rutene rd.

What the data shows is that ‘Meke’ Meka (Labour) and ‘Tino Tere’ Te Hamua (Mana) took 4 booths each. Na Raihania (Maori) won 2 booths. Moreover, Marama (Greens) took Tikitiki and came within a two vote difference in Ruatoria to Na.

So who won? E ta….it was a draw!

Kia Ora Tatau!

Te Pakanga mo T T R

 

Data Analysis – FYI (NB. for simplicity sakes, I have not included the independent candidates)

Booth Meka Te Hamua Na Marama WINNER
Hicks Bay 26% 34% 8% 28% TeHamua
Te Araroa 25% 27% 18% 25% TeHamua
Tiki 21% 22% 25% 31% Marama
Rua 24% 19% 27% 26% Na
Toko 25% 9% 55% 9% Na
Te Puia 54% 11% 24% 4% Meka
Tolaga 57% 17% 11% 15% Meka
Whangara 27% 46% 4% 19% TeHamua
Kaiti 32% 43% 11% 12% TeHamua
Rutene 40% 29% 13% 19% Meka
Ilmister 36% 31% 13% 19% Meka
11 Booths: From Hicks Bay to Kaiti Bridge
Te Hamua 4 out of 11 Hicks Bay, Te Araroa, Whangara and Kaiti
Meka 4 out of 11 Te Puia, Tolaga, Rutene and Ilminster
Na 2 out of 11 Ruatoria and Tokomaru Bay
Ma 1 out of 11 Tikitiki
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Tight Battle for 2nd & 3rd – Based on the Evidence

With the resignation of one of their party leaders, as well as the chair, there is a lot of buzz in the media about the demise of the Maori Party. This buzz is clearly premised on the provisional data from Saturday nights by election.

Lots of opinions are being shared. There is nothing wrong with opinions. But any opinion needs to be tempered by facts, and the facts show a very different story.  The race between the Maori Party and Mana was very close.

Moreover, given that in 2011 Labour got 61% of the Ikaroa Rawhiti vote, whereas in 2013, they only secured 42%, the evidence based conclusion is that Te Hamua took votes from Meka. Na’s vote between 2011 and 2013 stayed at around 20%.

TE HAMUA V NA – THE BATTLE OF THE BOOTHS

But this analysis looks at the results of Te Hamua v Na only. It compares the % of votes they took from each booth.

So when reading this, you need to disregard:

(a) the early advanced voting that Te Hamua won;

b) Meka’s results; and,

(c)  the size of the votes of each booth – not all booths are the same size….

This analysis MriVManaProvResultsIR2013 shows:

  • At 52 booths, Na got a higher % of the votes than Te Hamua.
  • Te Hamua beat Na at 50 booths.
  • Na and Te Hamua  drew at 6 booths – they go the same % of votes.
  • At 9 booths, the difference between the share of each candidate was very slim. The candidate who ended up getting more only got 1% – 3% more votes than the other.

CONCLUSION:

That was a close race. Te Hamua Nikora and his Mana team did really well.

But the Maori Party is not on the decline as this analysis shows. At the same time, it is not growing and that is most likely a concern to them.

To be fair, based on this analysis, it is more likely that in the Ikaroa Rawhiti district, Mana is only ahead by a nose.

Moreover, it is also plausible to say that the Maori party and Mana have quite evenly split the “tino rangatiratanga” segment of the Maori vote in Ikaroa Rawhiti.

SO WHAT?

One can state that the Labour vote is clearly ahead of both parties individually. But it did not grow its vote. That will concern them – even though they won.

Moreover, as discussed previously, if the “Tino Rangatiratanga” camp comes together, while difficult, it is a fair fight with the “Working Class” narrative.

If not however, based on the data, they have little show beating the incumbent.

This campaign has proven many pundits wrong. Furthermore, the analysis shows that if the pundits wish to be more accurate about their post game analysis they should look at more than the final score.

(Please note that this my personal interest. It is based on what I could extract from the Electoral Commissions data online. I am not being paid by anyone or party to do this.)

Ikaroa Rawhiti By Election 29 June 2013 – Draft Analysis

UPDATED – 2 july 2013- 3.29am BKK TIME

The Ikaroa Rawhiti Election is done and dusted.  It was awesome to watch this race…albeit from afar.

Meka won. Labour are rightfully happy. She has a strong support base. Her overall performance would have made Parekura proud.

Kare e kore kei te minamina iho mai te Piiki Tiwhi ra ki tana tamahine. The big chief will be smiling down upon her and the rohe.

But Meka had tough competition. Te Hamua’s campaign certainly was highly visible online AND on the ground. Also, contrary to some pundits, the Maori Party did well, with the gap between Te Hamua and Na being very slim.

Marama acquitted herself well. She was good from all that I saw on TV and online and she is a good speaker and smart woman.

Congrats to them all. Here are the big numbers from last night.

Overall Analysis

HE KORERO KE KAI ROTO I NGA WHIKA

Dig a bit deeper though, and its not as simple as 1st 2nd and 3rd – end of story.

If you look at the battle on the ground, Meka won the most booths – 84.

But the interesting part of the story is that even though Te Hamua did not get 50% or more in any of the booths, he won at 10 booths and drew with Meka in 3.

Na Raihania won 9 booths, mostly on the Coast but some in Napier.

Marama won at Tikitiki school!

A preliminary analysis suggests that Ngati Porou and Hauiti are not with Labour?

See the numbers below and tell me what you think?

Te Hamua’s Booths: 10 wins (3 draws)

  Marama

Te Hamua

Na

Meka

Hicks Bay, Te Kura Kaupapa Māori o Kawakawa mai Tawhiti, 22 Wharf Road

28%

34%

8%

26%

Te Araroa, Te Waha O Rerekohu Area School, 3 Arewhana Street

25%

27%

18%

25%

Whangara, Whangara School, 44 Pa Road

19%

46%

4%

27%

Gisborne, Cobham School, Lytton Road

6%

45%

14%

34%

Gisborne, Kaiti School, 517 Wainui Road

12%

43%

11%

32%

Gisborne, Waikirikiri School, 7 Pickering Street

18%

39%

9%

32%

Onekawa, Te Kura Kaupapa Māori O Te Ara Hou, 22 Wycliffe Street

16%

27%

29%

27%

Flaxmere, Kimi Ora Community School, 1 Boston Crescent

4%

48%

20%

28%

Mayfair, Karamu High School, 1036 Windsor Avenue

6%

33%

27%

31%

Camberley, Community Centre, 703 Kiwi Street

7%

36%

25%

29%

Gisborne, Gisborne Girls High School, 555 Gladstone Road

16%

35%

13%

35%

Whatatutu, Whatatutu School, 24 Te Hau Road

5%

37%

20%

37%

Taita, Taita Central School, 33a Churton Crescent

17%

33%

17%

33%

 

 Na’s Booths: 9 wins

  Marama Te Hamua Na Meka
Ruatoria, Te Kura Kaupapa Māori O Te Waiu O Ngati Porou, 13 Tuparoa Road

26%

19%

27%

24%

Tokomaru Bay, Hatea-A-Rangi School, 6 School Road

9%

9%

55%

25%

Muriwai, Muriwai School, 1684 Wharerata Road

5%

14%

43%

36%

Bay View, King George Hall, 1 Hill Road

7%

18%

44%

30%

Omahu, Omahu School, 22 Taihape Road

7%

19%

53%

21%

Bridge Pa, Bridge Pa School, 40 Maraekakaho Road

2%

10%

62%

27%

Mangateretere, Mangateretere School, 314 State Highway 2

5%

5%

54%

36%

Pirinoa, Pirinoa School, Room 2, Lake Ferry Road

22%

0%

56%

22%

Waimarama, Waimarama School, 27 Taupunga Road

10%

19%

48%

24%

 Marama’s win: Tikitiki Booth

Tikitiki, Tikitiki School, 33 Rangitukia Road

31%

22%

25%

21%

TE HAMUA GETS ADVANCED VOTERS OFF THE COUCH

Te Hamua also came second in the advanced votes.  These normally go to established parties.

From what I understand about advanced votes, it is no small feat to get 609 people to get off their backsides in order to vote in advance for the ” B.R.O” who is not a “C.E.O”.

Was this new voters, rangatahi and those inspired by his fresh approach?

MAORI PARTY LIVES TO FIGHT ANOTHER DAY

Moreover, this was not a clean sweep for Mana over the Maori Party. The difference between Te Hamua and Na was not daylight. It was more like the crack of dawn.

LABOUR LOST 20% OF ITS VOTES FROM 2011 – ALOT OF IT TO TE HAMUA IN TE TAI RAWHITI

Finally, it is true that Meka won comfortably. But Labour lost 20% of it’s 2011 majority – Meka captured just 42 per cent of the vote compared with Para’s 61 per cent in 2011.

Looking at the provisionals, this was mainly due to Te Hamua’s performance in Parekura’s traditional stomping ground: Ngati Porou, Hauiti and in Gisborne.  Te Hamua is a well known and loved quantity within te hau kaenga and it certainly shows in his results.

Interesting FactsKAUPAPA BRAND ANALYSIS

Meka clearly won getting the biggest block of voters.  But it is just as clear that the “working class” brand or narrative is not the strongest in the rohe. At 42%, it is less than half of what people voted for. Moreover, the rival “Maori independence” brand got 45% of the vote. So from a certain perspective view, tino rangatiratanga actually won the night. Let me explain. Mana and the Maori Parties represent what I term, the Maori independence brand, with the former being activist and the latter being progressive. Combined they got 45% of the vote – more than Labour. So from this angle, tino rangatiratanga won the night.

Just as important though is the fact that this result puts paid to any thought that the Maori Party is hemo, kua mate, pau te hau. Nothing could be further from the truth. Rather, there is clearly a split in those who believe that Maori need to lead/follow their own path, rather than cling to a mainstream party.

It is too easy to say that Maori didn’t agree that the Maori Party go with National. Just as it is not true to say that Maori don’t support Labour. The numbers do not back up that analysis. Rather, based on the numbers, there is not only a split between those who support the ‘working class’ approach, and those who support a Maori in dependence approach, but there is also a fairly even split in the tino rangatiratanga camp.

Labour would be hoping that this camp stays divided.

A further point from this data is that the Green brand is important to Maori. But clearly as a stand alone brand, it is not decisive. Green values are seen by Maori within a context, and not as a stand alone issue, and this comes through this data.

Kaupapa Analysis

BUT STILL MORE MAHI TO DO WHANAU

The real sad news however was that the turn out was only one third of all voters.

Two out of three voters stayed home or were out doing other things. A percentage of this is apathy – no doubt.  But how much of it is also disenchantment? What do you think?

Turnout Low

Regardless of the party, we all have more to do to get our people engaged in this process.

AT

PS. This is provisional data only. I predict Labour’s share to increase based on past performance.

Iwinfografix 1: Parekura – The Chief of Ikaroa Rawhiti

Ko te rangatira o Ikaroa Rawhiti - ko Para!

Ko te rangatira o Ikaroa Rawhiti – ko Para!

Parekura Tureia Horomia (9 November 1950 – 29 April 2013) was my relation. Dad used to talk about his cousin fondly.

I never worked with him when I was at TPK, but I attended many hui Parekura did and realised pretty early on that he had the people’s touch. He was a connector. He could connect with anyone and he did. But in particular, he would go out of his way to connect with the young, with rural people and with those struggling to make ends meet.

His nephew, young Willie Kaa related how he was meant to go watch Ngati Porou East Coast play Manawatu with his Uncle. Parekura picked him up in the Ministerial car. They drove to Palmerston North from Wellington. But a trip that normally takes an hour and a half trip took three hours. Parekura insisted that they stop at every vege shop along the way to speak to the owners. He also stopped to say hello and shake hands with every road worker they passed on the way up. They missed the game. But that was Uncle Para – always a kind word and a friendly hand shake for the ordinary man and woman. There were no flash airs or graces about him and he spoke his own form of eloquent English and Maori. He visited all the marae and was as well known in the kauta or out the back in the cookhouse as he was out front on the paepae or the orator’s bench. He said to Shane Jones, that the people wont remember what you said or looked like, but they will remember how you made them feel. Uncle Para made people feel like they mattered.

Moe mai Chief.

Visualising Indigenous Development, Progress & Other Things

Kia Ora.

My name is Te Atawhai Tibble. I am Ngati Porou, Towharetoa and Raukawa. I am a fluent speaker of te reo Maori. I studied law, economics, statistics and public policy at Victoria Uni.

I’m based in Bangkok, doing some work for Statistics NZ and about to embark upon some work for the UN.

This blog is my hobby (yes, geeky, but hey…I enjoy it). It is not a political blog, but rather represents things that really interest me, with a focus on what the data indicates.

My passion is Maori development. Maori kaupapa development. Yes I have opinions like anyone, I am a stickler for facts, like data, and am interested in how it differs and influences our perceptions.

This page is a mix of data analysis,  and infographics with a focus on iwi development.

Infographics turn complex information into exciting and capitvating picture stories that help people understand, remember and engage. It has been an amazing success for Stats NZ and something I am quite proud of.

Here is an infographic I helped develop at Stats NZ about Maori and non Maori dissatisfaction with the state of the environment – based on 2008 GSS data.

Dissatisfaction with State of Environmentt

So Iwinfografix presents a series of information graphics about Te Ao Maori.  It brings together knowledge, understanding, art, culture, design, and statistics/information.

What are Infographics?

What are Infographics?

Keep an eye on this page and updates as I present some rough drafts and finished products on infographics about Te Ao Maori, our development, and our people.  If you have any comments, feel free to contact me here: a.tibble@gmail.com

Nga mihi

Atawhai