Tight Battle for 2nd & 3rd – Based on the Evidence

With the resignation of one of their party leaders, as well as the chair, there is a lot of buzz in the media about the demise of the Maori Party. This buzz is clearly premised on the provisional data from Saturday nights by election.

Lots of opinions are being shared. There is nothing wrong with opinions. But any opinion needs to be tempered by facts, and the facts show a very different story.  The race between the Maori Party and Mana was very close.

Moreover, given that in 2011 Labour got 61% of the Ikaroa Rawhiti vote, whereas in 2013, they only secured 42%, the evidence based conclusion is that Te Hamua took votes from Meka. Na’s vote between 2011 and 2013 stayed at around 20%.

TE HAMUA V NA – THE BATTLE OF THE BOOTHS

But this analysis looks at the results of Te Hamua v Na only. It compares the % of votes they took from each booth.

So when reading this, you need to disregard:

(a) the early advanced voting that Te Hamua won;

b) Meka’s results; and,

(c)  the size of the votes of each booth – not all booths are the same size….

This analysis MriVManaProvResultsIR2013 shows:

  • At 52 booths, Na got a higher % of the votes than Te Hamua.
  • Te Hamua beat Na at 50 booths.
  • Na and Te Hamua  drew at 6 booths – they go the same % of votes.
  • At 9 booths, the difference between the share of each candidate was very slim. The candidate who ended up getting more only got 1% – 3% more votes than the other.

CONCLUSION:

That was a close race. Te Hamua Nikora and his Mana team did really well.

But the Maori Party is not on the decline as this analysis shows. At the same time, it is not growing and that is most likely a concern to them.

To be fair, based on this analysis, it is more likely that in the Ikaroa Rawhiti district, Mana is only ahead by a nose.

Moreover, it is also plausible to say that the Maori party and Mana have quite evenly split the “tino rangatiratanga” segment of the Maori vote in Ikaroa Rawhiti.

SO WHAT?

One can state that the Labour vote is clearly ahead of both parties individually. But it did not grow its vote. That will concern them – even though they won.

Moreover, as discussed previously, if the “Tino Rangatiratanga” camp comes together, while difficult, it is a fair fight with the “Working Class” narrative.

If not however, based on the data, they have little show beating the incumbent.

This campaign has proven many pundits wrong. Furthermore, the analysis shows that if the pundits wish to be more accurate about their post game analysis they should look at more than the final score.

(Please note that this my personal interest. It is based on what I could extract from the Electoral Commissions data online. I am not being paid by anyone or party to do this.)

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How not to represent Indigenous Peoples: Iwinfografix 101

This is a video with data and images about indigenous Canadians.

It uses data from a Stats Canada survey and outlines problems Aboriginal Canadians have compared with non indigenous Canadians.

It is a well made video: the production values are high.  It presents indigenous totems and objects alongside facts and figures. The background music is hauntingly beautiful.

You might assume that this is a great way to represent the issues of Aboriginal peoples?

Well, not necessarily.

I would like to present another perspective. Do you see:

… how hopeless life appears to be for Canadian Indians?

…any hope within the narrative?

….the underlying narrative as containing anything redemptive or solution focused?

Let me be clear here. I am not an Aboriginal Canadian. I am Indigenous Aotearoa.  The video presents facts. It highlights problems, and these are very serious.

But here is the issue for me, as an indigenous person: where is there any evidence of the people going forward or doing things positive? Is there any data that points to things that are working?

Now perhaps the purpose of the video is to present how hopeless the situation is for many. But I think it is necessary to say that in Aotearoa NZ, we have moved away from simple representations like this: where “life is fulll of despair, and the indigenous people are totally screwed!”

If you want the literature on this, read anything from my relative, Professor Linda Tuhiwai Smith and her work on Decolonising Methodologies. (Check a review on her classic work here http://www.culturalsurvival.org/ourpublications/csq/article/decolonizing-methodologies-research-and-indigenous-peopls)

The point is that in this video, even though I suspect the author did not intend it, has created a key implicit and subliminal message that is very disempowering. It is as if indigenous people need anyone outside of our own community, from government to churches, to save them.

In Aotearoa NZ, we don’t really like do these messages anymore. Linda Tuhiwai Smith and Mason Durie and other researchers have created more proactive, indigenous led frameworks of development that mean we need to be careful about the messages we send through research – whether intended or not.

Because ultimately, the messages in this video are colonial. They make indigenous people seem lesser, unable, and incapable of developing solutions.

There is nothing farther from the truth.

Moreover, if you want to see a piece of work that is more positive and well rounded, even though we have similar issues here with out young people: click on this http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/snapshots-of-nz/te-ao-marama-2012.aspx

Nga mihi

Atawhai

Iwinfografix 1: Parekura – The Chief of Ikaroa Rawhiti

Ko te rangatira o Ikaroa Rawhiti - ko Para!

Ko te rangatira o Ikaroa Rawhiti – ko Para!

Parekura Tureia Horomia (9 November 1950 – 29 April 2013) was my relation. Dad used to talk about his cousin fondly.

I never worked with him when I was at TPK, but I attended many hui Parekura did and realised pretty early on that he had the people’s touch. He was a connector. He could connect with anyone and he did. But in particular, he would go out of his way to connect with the young, with rural people and with those struggling to make ends meet.

His nephew, young Willie Kaa related how he was meant to go watch Ngati Porou East Coast play Manawatu with his Uncle. Parekura picked him up in the Ministerial car. They drove to Palmerston North from Wellington. But a trip that normally takes an hour and a half trip took three hours. Parekura insisted that they stop at every vege shop along the way to speak to the owners. He also stopped to say hello and shake hands with every road worker they passed on the way up. They missed the game. But that was Uncle Para – always a kind word and a friendly hand shake for the ordinary man and woman. There were no flash airs or graces about him and he spoke his own form of eloquent English and Maori. He visited all the marae and was as well known in the kauta or out the back in the cookhouse as he was out front on the paepae or the orator’s bench. He said to Shane Jones, that the people wont remember what you said or looked like, but they will remember how you made them feel. Uncle Para made people feel like they mattered.

Moe mai Chief.

Visualising Indigenous Development, Progress & Other Things

Kia Ora.

My name is Te Atawhai Tibble. I am Ngati Porou, Towharetoa and Raukawa. I am a fluent speaker of te reo Maori. I studied law, economics, statistics and public policy at Victoria Uni.

I’m based in Bangkok, doing some work for Statistics NZ and about to embark upon some work for the UN.

This blog is my hobby (yes, geeky, but hey…I enjoy it). It is not a political blog, but rather represents things that really interest me, with a focus on what the data indicates.

My passion is Maori development. Maori kaupapa development. Yes I have opinions like anyone, I am a stickler for facts, like data, and am interested in how it differs and influences our perceptions.

This page is a mix of data analysis,  and infographics with a focus on iwi development.

Infographics turn complex information into exciting and capitvating picture stories that help people understand, remember and engage. It has been an amazing success for Stats NZ and something I am quite proud of.

Here is an infographic I helped develop at Stats NZ about Maori and non Maori dissatisfaction with the state of the environment – based on 2008 GSS data.

Dissatisfaction with State of Environmentt

So Iwinfografix presents a series of information graphics about Te Ao Maori.  It brings together knowledge, understanding, art, culture, design, and statistics/information.

What are Infographics?

What are Infographics?

Keep an eye on this page and updates as I present some rough drafts and finished products on infographics about Te Ao Maori, our development, and our people.  If you have any comments, feel free to contact me here: a.tibble@gmail.com

Nga mihi

Atawhai