Tight Battle for 2nd & 3rd – Based on the Evidence

With the resignation of one of their party leaders, as well as the chair, there is a lot of buzz in the media about the demise of the Maori Party. This buzz is clearly premised on the provisional data from Saturday nights by election.

Lots of opinions are being shared. There is nothing wrong with opinions. But any opinion needs to be tempered by facts, and the facts show a very different story.  The race between the Maori Party and Mana was very close.

Moreover, given that in 2011 Labour got 61% of the Ikaroa Rawhiti vote, whereas in 2013, they only secured 42%, the evidence based conclusion is that Te Hamua took votes from Meka. Na’s vote between 2011 and 2013 stayed at around 20%.

TE HAMUA V NA – THE BATTLE OF THE BOOTHS

But this analysis looks at the results of Te Hamua v Na only. It compares the % of votes they took from each booth.

So when reading this, you need to disregard:

(a) the early advanced voting that Te Hamua won;

b) Meka’s results; and,

(c)  the size of the votes of each booth – not all booths are the same size….

This analysis MriVManaProvResultsIR2013 shows:

  • At 52 booths, Na got a higher % of the votes than Te Hamua.
  • Te Hamua beat Na at 50 booths.
  • Na and Te Hamua  drew at 6 booths – they go the same % of votes.
  • At 9 booths, the difference between the share of each candidate was very slim. The candidate who ended up getting more only got 1% – 3% more votes than the other.

CONCLUSION:

That was a close race. Te Hamua Nikora and his Mana team did really well.

But the Maori Party is not on the decline as this analysis shows. At the same time, it is not growing and that is most likely a concern to them.

To be fair, based on this analysis, it is more likely that in the Ikaroa Rawhiti district, Mana is only ahead by a nose.

Moreover, it is also plausible to say that the Maori party and Mana have quite evenly split the “tino rangatiratanga” segment of the Maori vote in Ikaroa Rawhiti.

SO WHAT?

One can state that the Labour vote is clearly ahead of both parties individually. But it did not grow its vote. That will concern them – even though they won.

Moreover, as discussed previously, if the “Tino Rangatiratanga” camp comes together, while difficult, it is a fair fight with the “Working Class” narrative.

If not however, based on the data, they have little show beating the incumbent.

This campaign has proven many pundits wrong. Furthermore, the analysis shows that if the pundits wish to be more accurate about their post game analysis they should look at more than the final score.

(Please note that this my personal interest. It is based on what I could extract from the Electoral Commissions data online. I am not being paid by anyone or party to do this.)

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