Ikaroa Rawhiti By Election 29 June 2013 – Draft Analysis

UPDATED – 2 july 2013- 3.29am BKK TIME

The Ikaroa Rawhiti Election is done and dusted.  It was awesome to watch this race…albeit from afar.

Meka won. Labour are rightfully happy. She has a strong support base. Her overall performance would have made Parekura proud.

Kare e kore kei te minamina iho mai te Piiki Tiwhi ra ki tana tamahine. The big chief will be smiling down upon her and the rohe.

But Meka had tough competition. Te Hamua’s campaign certainly was highly visible online AND on the ground. Also, contrary to some pundits, the Maori Party did well, with the gap between Te Hamua and Na being very slim.

Marama acquitted herself well. She was good from all that I saw on TV and online and she is a good speaker and smart woman.

Congrats to them all. Here are the big numbers from last night.

Overall Analysis

HE KORERO KE KAI ROTO I NGA WHIKA

Dig a bit deeper though, and its not as simple as 1st 2nd and 3rd – end of story.

If you look at the battle on the ground, Meka won the most booths – 84.

But the interesting part of the story is that even though Te Hamua did not get 50% or more in any of the booths, he won at 10 booths and drew with Meka in 3.

Na Raihania won 9 booths, mostly on the Coast but some in Napier.

Marama won at Tikitiki school!

A preliminary analysis suggests that Ngati Porou and Hauiti are not with Labour?

See the numbers below and tell me what you think?

Te Hamua’s Booths: 10 wins (3 draws)

  Marama

Te Hamua

Na

Meka

Hicks Bay, Te Kura Kaupapa Māori o Kawakawa mai Tawhiti, 22 Wharf Road

28%

34%

8%

26%

Te Araroa, Te Waha O Rerekohu Area School, 3 Arewhana Street

25%

27%

18%

25%

Whangara, Whangara School, 44 Pa Road

19%

46%

4%

27%

Gisborne, Cobham School, Lytton Road

6%

45%

14%

34%

Gisborne, Kaiti School, 517 Wainui Road

12%

43%

11%

32%

Gisborne, Waikirikiri School, 7 Pickering Street

18%

39%

9%

32%

Onekawa, Te Kura Kaupapa Māori O Te Ara Hou, 22 Wycliffe Street

16%

27%

29%

27%

Flaxmere, Kimi Ora Community School, 1 Boston Crescent

4%

48%

20%

28%

Mayfair, Karamu High School, 1036 Windsor Avenue

6%

33%

27%

31%

Camberley, Community Centre, 703 Kiwi Street

7%

36%

25%

29%

Gisborne, Gisborne Girls High School, 555 Gladstone Road

16%

35%

13%

35%

Whatatutu, Whatatutu School, 24 Te Hau Road

5%

37%

20%

37%

Taita, Taita Central School, 33a Churton Crescent

17%

33%

17%

33%

 

 Na’s Booths: 9 wins

  Marama Te Hamua Na Meka
Ruatoria, Te Kura Kaupapa Māori O Te Waiu O Ngati Porou, 13 Tuparoa Road

26%

19%

27%

24%

Tokomaru Bay, Hatea-A-Rangi School, 6 School Road

9%

9%

55%

25%

Muriwai, Muriwai School, 1684 Wharerata Road

5%

14%

43%

36%

Bay View, King George Hall, 1 Hill Road

7%

18%

44%

30%

Omahu, Omahu School, 22 Taihape Road

7%

19%

53%

21%

Bridge Pa, Bridge Pa School, 40 Maraekakaho Road

2%

10%

62%

27%

Mangateretere, Mangateretere School, 314 State Highway 2

5%

5%

54%

36%

Pirinoa, Pirinoa School, Room 2, Lake Ferry Road

22%

0%

56%

22%

Waimarama, Waimarama School, 27 Taupunga Road

10%

19%

48%

24%

 Marama’s win: Tikitiki Booth

Tikitiki, Tikitiki School, 33 Rangitukia Road

31%

22%

25%

21%

TE HAMUA GETS ADVANCED VOTERS OFF THE COUCH

Te Hamua also came second in the advanced votes.  These normally go to established parties.

From what I understand about advanced votes, it is no small feat to get 609 people to get off their backsides in order to vote in advance for the ” B.R.O” who is not a “C.E.O”.

Was this new voters, rangatahi and those inspired by his fresh approach?

MAORI PARTY LIVES TO FIGHT ANOTHER DAY

Moreover, this was not a clean sweep for Mana over the Maori Party. The difference between Te Hamua and Na was not daylight. It was more like the crack of dawn.

LABOUR LOST 20% OF ITS VOTES FROM 2011 – ALOT OF IT TO TE HAMUA IN TE TAI RAWHITI

Finally, it is true that Meka won comfortably. But Labour lost 20% of it’s 2011 majority – Meka captured just 42 per cent of the vote compared with Para’s 61 per cent in 2011.

Looking at the provisionals, this was mainly due to Te Hamua’s performance in Parekura’s traditional stomping ground: Ngati Porou, Hauiti and in Gisborne.  Te Hamua is a well known and loved quantity within te hau kaenga and it certainly shows in his results.

Interesting FactsKAUPAPA BRAND ANALYSIS

Meka clearly won getting the biggest block of voters.  But it is just as clear that the “working class” brand or narrative is not the strongest in the rohe. At 42%, it is less than half of what people voted for. Moreover, the rival “Maori independence” brand got 45% of the vote. So from a certain perspective view, tino rangatiratanga actually won the night. Let me explain. Mana and the Maori Parties represent what I term, the Maori independence brand, with the former being activist and the latter being progressive. Combined they got 45% of the vote – more than Labour. So from this angle, tino rangatiratanga won the night.

Just as important though is the fact that this result puts paid to any thought that the Maori Party is hemo, kua mate, pau te hau. Nothing could be further from the truth. Rather, there is clearly a split in those who believe that Maori need to lead/follow their own path, rather than cling to a mainstream party.

It is too easy to say that Maori didn’t agree that the Maori Party go with National. Just as it is not true to say that Maori don’t support Labour. The numbers do not back up that analysis. Rather, based on the numbers, there is not only a split between those who support the ‘working class’ approach, and those who support a Maori in dependence approach, but there is also a fairly even split in the tino rangatiratanga camp.

Labour would be hoping that this camp stays divided.

A further point from this data is that the Green brand is important to Maori. But clearly as a stand alone brand, it is not decisive. Green values are seen by Maori within a context, and not as a stand alone issue, and this comes through this data.

Kaupapa Analysis

BUT STILL MORE MAHI TO DO WHANAU

The real sad news however was that the turn out was only one third of all voters.

Two out of three voters stayed home or were out doing other things. A percentage of this is apathy – no doubt.  But how much of it is also disenchantment? What do you think?

Turnout Low

Regardless of the party, we all have more to do to get our people engaged in this process.

AT

PS. This is provisional data only. I predict Labour’s share to increase based on past performance.

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7 thoughts on “Ikaroa Rawhiti By Election 29 June 2013 – Draft Analysis

  1. Good analysis. Turnout (well, lack of) is the sad news (as you say). I’d say it’s 3 parts disillusionment and 1 part apathy. It’s especially disappointing given the relatively string field. Politics aside, each candidate had their strengths and the campaign was conducted with gracefully. For the most part, issues-focussed.

  2. Interesting…I would say a lot of the Labour vote would be more to do with Parekura’s legacy than with working class. Times change and National is still in power with their neo liberal agenda. Will Labour be seen as a watered down version of National with no hard lines on tackling the real hard core issues. Time will tell, but the trends seem to tell the future….Mana on the rise…..Maori Party on the decline.

    • Mana certainly on the rise…not sure of the Maori Party decline…but you are right that someone must be losing votes, unless the pie is getting bigger. What impressed me about this time is that normally, rangatahi who make up a huge part of our population don’t normally get a choice… Te Hamua certainly seemed to offer them a choice. Even so, Labour is still preferred by at least 42% of those who voted, so they are definitely the voice of those people. Thanks for stopping by! Nga mihi.

  3. Awesome! I actually spoke to several people that don’t normally vote and this by-election, they actually voted. They were rangatahi, poor, uneducated and looking for an “out”. What was a determining factor in their decisions to vote was the engagement they had with candidates, particularly MANA. Kanohi ki te kanohi is better than a phone call, a pamphlet or some billboard. All the analyses and theories on how to get more people to vote can be resolved by getting up and going to meet the people that don’t vote. You may end up meeting those on the outskirts or margins of society [e.g. gang members]. Surely they’ve had dreams and hopes for a better future if not for themselves then for their children? Having a political voice is important and central to changes for the better.
    I received a phone call from Labour on the 29th telling me to go and vote- as soon as I picked the phone up it was “Hello, my name is David can I speak to X, Y…actually who am I speaking to”…I reply with my name…”are you able to vote”….I say yes…”can you go and vote now, if you could vote now it would be really appreciated”…I say OK…”Thank you very much have a nice day”… If he had of asked the right questions and stopped assuming I was one of the ones that doesn’t exercise my right to vote he would’ve found out that everyone in my immediate whanau voted at the advance polling booths, as per normal for my whanau to do. Patronising- ABSOLUTELY. Likely that he’s an idiot who flew in from out of town- HIGHLY LIKELY. Did I vote for Labour? NO WAY. My whanau were once Labour supporters, however, years of abuse have led us all to finding parties that will represent the views of Maori. In my immediate whanau, we debate which party policies we agree with and we all vote the same way. Voting for the person is a factor but not the determining factor in our voting- it’s the policies that count. If the candidate does not deliver or fails to uphold the integrity of those policies then they become accountable to the people.
    The answers to increasing voting may lie in the community. Strong, active and political communities can make a difference.

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